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The presidential candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Adewole Adebayo, has warned that petrol prices in Nigeria could climb to as high as ₦5,000 per litre if President Bola Ahmed Tinubu secures a second term and the government’s current economic policy framework continues.
Adebayo made the projection in a statement issued on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, by his campaign’s Chief Communications Adviser, Mark Adebayo. He linked his forecast principally to petroleum-sector deregulation, exchange-rate depreciation, import costs, interest rates and exposure to fluctuations in global crude prices.
According to Adebayo, one of the biggest risks is the value of the naira. He argued that because imported petroleum products and some components of domestic fuel pricing are exposed to dollar-denominated costs, further currency depreciation could translate into substantially higher pump prices.
Adebayo based part of his projection on a hypothetical scenario in which the exchange rate deteriorates to ₦3,500 to one US dollar. Under that assumption, he claimed the landing cost of imported petrol alone could exceed ₦4,000 per litre.
However, the ₦5,000 figure is Adebayo’s political and economic projection, not an announced government price or an independently established forecast. Whether petrol could reach that level would depend on multiple variables, including the exchange rate, crude-oil prices, domestic refining output, taxes and levies, transportation costs and government policy.
Adebayo also criticised the removal of petrol subsidy, arguing that a fully market-driven system leaves consumers more directly exposed to international oil-price shocks.
He said higher petrol prices could trigger a chain reaction across the economy: increased fuel costs raise transportation expenses, which can increase the cost of moving food and other goods, adding further inflationary pressure on households.
Another factor highlighted by the SDP candidate is the cost of financing petroleum imports and distribution. He argued that high interest rates increase marketers’ financing expenses, while deficiencies in port and distribution infrastructure add further costs before petrol reaches filling stations.
His latest comments are consistent with his longstanding criticism of the Tinubu administration’s approach to subsidy removal. In a recent interview, Adebayo argued that Nigeria should concentrate on guaranteeing domestic petroleum-product supply and expanding local refining, rather than treating subsidy removal itself as the solution to the country’s energy problems.
Adebayo says that, if elected in 2027, his administration would pursue greater local refining through public-private arrangements and introduce targeted measures aimed at cushioning vulnerable Nigerians from energy-price shocks.
His warning comes as the cost of energy and the wider cost of living are emerging as major issues ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Adebayo has repeatedly criticised the government’s economic record, while the APC has defended Tinubu’s reforms as necessary measures to address longstanding structural distortions in the Nigerian economy.
The political argument will ultimately turn on competing economic approaches: whether continued deregulation and market reforms will eventually produce greater stability and investment, or whether stronger government intervention and domestic-production policies would better protect consumers from energy-price shocks.
For now, one distinction is essential: petrol has not been officially projected by the government to reach ₦5,000 per litre. The figure is Adebayo’s warning based on assumptions about what could happen to the naira, global oil prices and existing economic policies.
